IPA Bellwether: 15 marketers on
the categories to watch in 2025
The latest IPA Bellwether report revealed that main media spend plummeted in Q4 to a net balance of -4.3% quarter-on-quarter, compared to 4.3% in Q3.
Breaking down the segment, main media’s reduction appears to have been driven by broad contractions across audio (net balance of -17.4%, from -10.0%), out-of-home (OOH) (-12.8%, from -15.7%), video (-10.7%, from 11.7%), and published brands (-10.2%, from -4.4%).
With projections for spend across some of the key performance channels looking rather pessimistic, PMW spoke to 15 experts to find out if this is really the consensus among marketers and the advertising categories to keep an eye on for the year ahead.
Tom Stone, Co-founder, re:act said: “The Q4 IPA Bellwether report paints a promising picture for the future of social media marketing. While main media ad budgets contracted, unsurprisingly, given the rising costs of traditional methods, the 2.2% growth in ‘other online advertising’ suggests social media may play an increased role. Social platforms offer unparalleled flexibility and precision, allowing brands to engage their audiences in targeted and dynamic ways.
“It’s encouraging to see clients shifting towards more fluid advertising approaches, leveraging social to deliver concise, impactful messaging. This aligns with broader trends we’re seeing across the industry, where brands are prioritising cost-effectiveness and ROI amid economic pressures.
“Looking ahead, social media’s ability to adapt, personalise, and integrate with innovations like AI ensures its continued growth as a marketing powerhouse. It’s a reminder for brands to embrace the agility and creative potential that social channels uniquely provide.”
Ed Wale, VP International, LG Ad Solutions, said: “It’s surprising to see video spend pull back somewhat in the last quarter of 2024, especially considering what a standout year it was for TV and video overall. Notably, research indicates that connected TV (CTV) spend is projected to nearly double by 2028, while viewers in the UK now have access to approximately 650 FAST (free ad-supported streaming television) channels.
“This underscores the continued growth of both mediums and their role in reshaping video marketing by offering scalable and performance-driven opportunities. I would be very surprised if this Q4 observation is not a one-off anomaly. We expect 2025 expenditures on streaming formats to reach record highs. Video advertising remains a powerhouse, providing unparalleled opportunities for storytelling and audience engagement.
“In 2025, advancements in AI-powered ad placements, real-time data-driven targeting, and interactive video formats are set to reignite investment. With smart TVs functioning as digital hubs in households, the home screen offers brands a unique opportunity to connect with audiences in true discovery mode, driving both brand-building and measurable ROI.”
Ellie Lane, Head of Client Strategy, Quantcast UK, said: “The increase in adspend in Q4 is no surprise. Black Friday and the Christmas period were no doubt the main cause, with brands investing heavily in targeting the active audiences the festive season always delivers.
“What’s interesting is that high street retailers didn’t have a brilliant time, with footfall down in physical stores. It seems shopping has shifted online with brands now doubling down on omnichannel to capture consumer attention where it matters most. It’s an important trend that is likely to shape advertising strategies through 2025 and beyond.
“Looking at the year ahead, the outlook for the industry is mixed. The economic and political climate will undoubtedly play its part. With the measures announced in the latest budget speech taking effect in April, businesses may cut back on adspend to cover additional costs. It’s a similar story internationally too, as the talk of Trump increasing tariffs could result in UK brands reliant on US exports scaling back.
“CTV will continue growing, but the market is getting harder to penetrate. Every passing week there’s more content available and the likes of Netflix are investing heavily in live sports and entertainment, which may prove a game-changer. What’s safe to say though, is that brands really can’t afford to ignore the medium any longer.”
Phil Acton, Country Manager UK, Adform, said: “Although the latest IPA Bellwether report has a cautious outlook, there’s a growing sense of economic relief, especially with the recent news of UK inflation slowing. Now is the ideal time for marketers to capitalise on the increased budget and make strategic investments – particularly in technologies that can minimise media waste and maximise effectiveness.
“In the increasingly fragmented digital landscape, with over 100 significant identifiers now operating, advertisers need advanced solutions to cut through the complexity and maximise addressability. This includes technology that provides the transparency and control to optimise targeting, from curated deals, contextual to audience and retargeting, ensuring IDs work harmoniously across diverse platforms. This will drive broader reach, higher performance and more substantial results.
“As high-growth channels like CTV continue to rise, these multi-ID solutions offer a powerful tool for more efficient campaigns that maximise ROI and reduce the risk of wasted spend. By taking a proactive approach today and embracing game-changing innovation, brands can ensure they stay ahead once the market rebounds in 2025/26.”
Karla Smith, Chief Financial Officer, Ogilvy, said: “UK businesses are preparing for the pinch of the impending Employers NIC, so it’s great to see overall growth and cautious optimism in marketing spend. We continue to see diversification of spend, which is to be expected with continued personalisation.
“Perhaps it is time for some new categories to be added into this Bellwether though – where is social, what about influencer? It is these growing specialisms within our portfolios that are attracting the marketing budgets with opportunities for innovation and new forms of content.”
Julie Selman, SVP, Head of EMEA, Magnite, said: “The decline of video in the Q4 2024 IPA Bellwether report is unexpected, especially after such strong figures earlier in the year. This shift underscores the volatility of today’s media landscape, where macroeconomic pressures and evolving consumer habits continue to reshape budgets.
“However, there’s every reason to be optimistic about video’s role in 2025. The rise of live events, including sports on streaming platforms is a particularly exciting development, offering advertisers new opportunities to engage highly captivated audiences in real time. As streaming channels continue to invest heavily in premium live content, video’s ability to deliver both reach and engagement will be amplified.
“With advances in personalisation and cross-channel opportunities in digital advertising, marketers are well-positioned to unlock even greater value from their streaming video strategies.”
Gideon Adey, Client Services Director, UniLED Software, said: “The latest IPA Bellwether report is further evidence of the need for robust measurement and reporting across all media channels.
“Despite optimism and a rise in budgets, brands will remain circumspect when it comes to adspend. Consequently, agencies will be expected to provide tangible reassurance that the media they are buying is delivering the expected ROAS. This will not be limited to the end of the run but also as the ad campaign is ‘in-flight’.
“Caution should never be the driver of independent verification for digital out-of-home (DOOH), but to be honest it probably is. This is why, we believe, we’ve had a healthy 51% uplift in bookings so far in Q1, compared to last year. We expect this to continue for the rest of Q1 and beyond. After all, no media channel should be exempt from proving its worth. Even those such as DOOH are known for their value in times of budget constraints and their ability to over deliver on campaign metrics.
“The Bellwether report also shows an uptick in investment in events, reflecting advertiser’s acknowledgement that advertising ‘in real life (IRL)’ is important in building trust with consumers. Let’s not forget that OOH/ DOOH mirrors this IRL offering, providing ad campaigns with media experiences and touchpoints that help brands connect with their target audience.”
Jon Hewson, Managing Director, Audience Store, said: “The IPA Bellwether report suggests some businesses may still adopt a cautious approach towards main media marketing budgets in 2025, with 6.3% of panellists expect to spend more in this area.
“At Audience Store, we anticipate this to be higher, potentially by double-digits, as innovative businesses will recognise and take advantage of the opportunity more challenging trading conditions present – to gain market share by taking it away from the businesses who decide to reduce budgets. Those who press the pedal harder will benefit from increased share of mind, which will help them grow sales and protect market share and revenues.
“We also believe CTV growth potential exemplifies this optimism as it continues to mature into a core advertising channel capable of delivering significant scale and measurable results for advertisers. With its ability to reach highly engaged audiences during ‘binge-watch’ sessions and through premium content, CTV bridges the gap between traditional TV’s reach and digital’s precision.
“ For brands, CTV is no longer an experimental channel – it is a must-have. It allows advertisers to capitalise on evolving viewer habits and delivers both reach and performance. As direct marketing’s growth demonstrates, the synergy of technology, creativity, and accountability can unlock immense value in a challenging economic environment.”
Billy Mills, Senior Director, Global Advertising, eBay Ads, said: “The latest IPA Bellwether report findings convey a somewhat mixed message: while the return to growth in Q4 2024 is encouraging, the decline in main media budgets highlights the need for brands to adapt and focus on resilient advertising strategies.
“Thankfully, the report indicates a promising outlook for marketing expenditure in the 2025/26 financial year, with many companies anticipating an upward revision of their total marketing budgets. Now is the time for brands to double down on creating robust and durable advertising strategies for the months and year ahead.
“In the world of digital advertising, it is now more crucial than ever for each consumer’s interaction with a brand to be meaningful, and to have a positive impact on their buying experience. Using real-time, actionable data will ensure brands and marketers can deliver tailored messages at key decision-making moments, driving measurable business results. Not only will this result in an enhanced customer experience, but it will also mean valuable adspend isn’t unnecessarily wasted.”
Maor Sadra, CEO and Co-founder, INCRMNTAL, said: “Online advertising is the go-to, tried and tested medium for brands, so it’s no surprise that spend here is up. Yet, that doesn’t mean online ads always drive the best ROI.
“We’re seeing a lot of success around podcast advertising and on a lesser but still significant scale, DOOH ads. Brands have been reluctant to assign any serious budget to these channels as to date, it’s been hard to measure the success of campaigns here.
“However, that’s beginning to change thanks to incremental measurement solutions that can accurately measure the success of advertising tactics across all channels online and offline. In 2025, the hope is that all marketing teams will acquire the tools to effectively analyse campaigns and as a result, we’ll see revised budgets that prioritise the channels that are truly delivering rather than those that are a safe bet.”
Anna Uprichard, Vice President, Commerce, EMEA, Blackhawk Network, said: “While budgets are tight, brands will look for quick wins; but a successful retail marketing strategy demands a shift away from short-term tactics and a focus on driving long-term success. Without the right strategy, these tactics may offer fleeting gains, but fail to build customer loyalty which is crucial for sustained success in a challenging market.
“Growth across both sales promotion and direct marketing are evidence of how useful they can be. Especially when it comes to acquisition. But marketers sometimes overlook these tactics when it comes to driving loyalty.
“Consumers are actively looking for sales promotions and getting them right can keep them coming back. For example, recent BHN research found that 57% of consumers planned to alter their shopping habits over Christmas – such as opting for less expensive brands or seeking more promotions, so retailers must evolve in order to stay competitive. Offering promotions, affordable alternatives, loyalty and accessible services will be critical to meeting this shift.”
Virginie Chesnais, Chief Marketing Officer, Happydemics, said: “This report highlights just how cautious the UK advertising industry remains in 2025. Declines in long-term brand-building channels like audio, OOH, and video during economic downturns are unsurprising during tighter economic times. But while advertisers prioritise immediate results with lower-funnel tactics, it’s proving to be a missed opportunity.
“These channels excel at driving key brand growth metrics that connect audience engagement to meaningful outcomes. Our benchmarks, derived from brand lift data across more than 6,000 campaigns, show that video boasts the highest ad recall rate across all media, outperforming the average benchmark by three points. OOH stands out for shaping brand perception, exceeding the average for positioning a brand on a specific image item by six points. Both are essential for creating sustainable growth when integrated into multichannel strategies.
“This underscores the urgent need for a standardised, trusted metric to measure advertising effectiveness. Unified measurement is critical to ensuring advertisers can optimise investments across the expanding array of media platforms. Without it, the industry risks leaving untapped value on the table, especially from channels that are pivotal for long-term brand success.”
Ben Putley, CEO, Alkimi, said: “As the low mood around the economic outlook continues, advertisers will want to prioritise ROI and maximise the impact of their media spend. The decline in main media advertising budgets last quarter is a clear signal that marketers are seeking more efficient, cost-effective, and measurable advertising solutions.
“Brands need support in the current economy, with transparency across the supply chain being a priority, so platforms need to show the true value of their investment. This year should be about tackling fraud in supply chains, the growing issue of made for advertising websites (MFAs) and utilising new tech like blockchain – that’s naturally transparent – to support this aim.”
Lauren Maynard, Global Chief Growth Officer, FutureBrand, said: “With overall marketing budget growth being modest, tough choices are unavoidable. Businesses are prioritising investment areas that offer clear and tangible ROI. Marketers are directing more investment into brand design, a tangible asset for boards, and customer experience (CX), which offers a direct link to sales.
“Careful, considered innovation will require leaders to continue drilling down into their brand and identify the key attributes that separate them from the competition.
“A strong brand is not only clear and consistent, it must be adopted at every level of a business from leadership down. Moving forward, this remains essential for delivering consistent messaging across multimedia touchpoints, particularly as AI-powered technologies like search will expose brand weaknesses and inconsistencies. This type of tech disruption necessitates disciplined brand investments to maintain clarity and differentiation.”
Alex Cheeseman, Head of Enterprise UK, Outbrain, said: “Following Meta’s scaled-back fact-checking efforts, advertisers concerned about brand safety on these platforms should shift their budgets. While Q4’s Bellwether report recorded a decline in marketing spend for published brands and video, with brand safety and DEI now in the spotlight, publishers providing fact-checked, high-quality environments stand to gain as advertisers grow wary of murky or regressive platforms.
“In a market where efficiency still rules, marketers must explore safer, more principled alternatives. By investing in premium publishers, brands effectively ‘vote’ for factual reporting and social responsibility without sacrificing performance.
“Meanwhile, video demand keeps growing: in 2024, 89% of consumers wanted more videos. Publishers are rising to this challenge, offering social-style vertical formats on the open web, reaching wider audiences who trust credible journalism. With brand safety, immersive creative, and performance all aligned, premium publishers have become a compelling choice, and a necessary refuge for modern marketers.”
Read the article here: https://www.performancemarketingworld.com/article/1902991/ipa-bellwether-15-marketers-categories-watch-2025n